Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 14,808
2 New Jersey 12,276
3 Massachusetts 7,970
4 Connecticut 7,087
5 Rhode Island 7,022
6 Louisiana 5,759
7 District of Columbia 5,442
8 Delaware 4,142
9 Michigan 3,780
10 Illinois 3,464
11 Pennsylvania 3,336
12 Maryland 3,073
13 South Dakota 2,501
14 Colorado 2,334
15 Indiana 2,229
16 Georgia 2,115
17 Mississippi 1,986
18 Washington 1,794
19 Iowa 1,740
20 Nebraska 1,615
21 Virginia 1,519
22 Nevada 1,505
23 Florida 1,467
24 Tennessee 1,390
25 New Hampshire 1,370
26 Ohio 1,365
27 Vermont 1,363
28 Alabama 1,309
29 New Mexico 1,301
30 Utah 1,286
31 Missouri 1,140
32 North Dakota 1,137
33 California 1,105
34 Kansas 1,094
35 South Carolina 1,066
36 Wisconsin 1,015
37 Arkansas 994
38 Idaho 989
39 Kentucky 911
40 Arizona 896
41 Texas 869
42 North Carolina 841
43 Oklahoma 822
44 Maine 755
45 Wyoming 641
46 Minnesota 638
47 West Virginia 587
48 Oregon 547
49 Alaska 463
50 Puerto Rico 429
51 Hawaii 423
52 Montana 419

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Massachusetts 431
2 New York 421
3 Rhode Island 372
4 New Jersey 339
5 Delaware 248
6 District of Columbia 226
7 Connecticut 202
8 Illinois 183
9 Iowa 163
10 Nebraska 161
11 Maryland 156
12 Colorado 126
13 Pennsylvania 113
14 Indiana 97
15 South Dakota 96
16 Mississippi 84
17 Michigan 83
18 Virginia 76
19 Louisiana 74
20 North Dakota 69
21 Kansas 65
22 Tennessee 61
23 New Mexico 55
24 Utah 52
25 Wisconsin 49
26 Georgia 48
27 New Hampshire 47
28 Nevada 46
29 Arkansas 44
30 Alabama 40
31 Kentucky 39
32 Minnesota 39
33 North Carolina 38
34 South Carolina 37
35 Missouri 36
36 Ohio 36
37 California 35
38 Arizona 34
39 Washington 33
40 Florida 29
41 Texas 28
42 Wyoming 22
43 Maine 19
44 Oklahoma 19
45 Oregon 14
46 Puerto Rico 14
47 Vermont 13
48 West Virginia 13
49 Idaho 8
50 Hawaii 2
51 Alaska 1
52 Montana 1

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 872
2 New Jersey 668
3 Connecticut 539
4 Massachusetts 420
5 Louisiana 359
6 Michigan 331
7 District of Columbia 252
8 Rhode Island 213
9 Illinois 153
10 Pennsylvania 146
11 Maryland 136
12 Delaware 123
13 Indiana 120
14 Colorado 117
15 Washington 99
16 Georgia 85
17 Mississippi 76
18 Vermont 73
19 Nevada 66
20 Ohio 62
21 Virginia 52
22 Florida 49
23 Oklahoma 49
24 Minnesota 48
25 Kentucky 47
26 New Mexico 47
27 Wisconsin 47
28 Missouri 45
29 Alabama 44
30 New Hampshire 44
31 California 43
32 Kansas 41
33 Arizona 38
34 Iowa 37
35 Maine 37
36 South Carolina 33
37 Idaho 31
38 North Carolina 29
39 Nebraska 28
40 Tennessee 27
41 Texas 23
42 North Dakota 22
43 Oregon 21
44 West Virginia 18
45 Arkansas 16
46 Puerto Rico 16
47 Montana 13
48 South Dakota 12
49 Utah 12
50 Wyoming 12
51 Alaska 9
52 Hawaii 9

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Connecticut 26
2 Massachusetts 26
3 New Jersey 21
4 New York 21
5 District of Columbia 18
6 Michigan 11
7 Rhode Island 11
8 Delaware 9
9 Louisiana 9
10 Maryland 8
11 Colorado 7
12 Illinois 6
13 Indiana 5
14 Minnesota 4
15 New Mexico 3
16 Pennsylvania 3
17 Iowa 2
18 Mississippi 2
19 New Hampshire 2
20 Ohio 2
21 Virginia 2
22 Alabama 1
23 California 1
24 Florida 1
25 Georgia 1
26 Kentucky 1
27 Maine 1
28 Missouri 1
29 Nebraska 1
30 Nevada 1
31 North Carolina 1
32 Oklahoma 1
33 South Carolina 1
34 Vermont 1
35 Washington 1
36 Alaska 0
37 Arizona 0
38 Arkansas 0
39 Hawaii 0
40 Idaho 0
41 Kansas 0
42 Montana 0
43 North Dakota 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Puerto Rico 0
46 South Dakota 0
47 Tennessee 0
48 Texas 0
49 Utah 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 97,174 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 55,820 2 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 39,033 3 99
Rockland New York 34,550 4 99
Marion Ohio 33,460 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 3,414 208 93
Richland South Carolina 2,013 427 86
Pierce Washington 1,466 614 80
Orange California 653 1264 59
York South Carolina 644 1279 59

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 7,152 1 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 2 99
Terrell Georgia 1,993 3 99
Early Georgia 1,472 4 99
Nassau New York 1,446 5 99
Pierce Washington 53 660 78
Richland South Carolina 46 742 76
Davidson Tennessee 33 892 71
Orange California 12 1237 60
York South Carolina 11 1260 59

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons